Okay, so I have this major dillemma coming up and I really don't know how to deal with it. I've spoken to most people about it and I'm sure by now they are sick of hearing about it. Most have been nice enough to suggest solutions and possible ways to get to those solutions...and here is one of them.
Help me Calculate the following probability:
Situation: There are 2 tournaments coming up and you can only try-out for 3 sports to get into the first tournament (vancity), you can only play one sport per tournament. You need to win the vancity tourny in order to move on to the kenya tourny. At the Kenya tourny there is a possibility of playing or spectating; the Vancity one the only option is which sports to play.
Try-outs: 3 sports: Basketball (B), Squash (S), Track (T)
Probability of making the tryouts per sports = 100% for B ; 95% for S; 98% for T
Enjoyment in terms of percent for sports: B = 100% ; S = 80% ; T=60%
Enjoyment of spectating = 75%
Assuming I play B, probability of wining tourny to move onto Kenya = 5%
Assuming I play S, probability of wining tourny to move onto Kenya = 35%
Assuming I play T, probability of winning tounry to move onto Kenya = 70%
Winning Kenya tourny chances:
B=95%
S=10%
T-5%
Which sports should I play in order to get the highest change to go to Kenya?
Which sport would I have the best chance to do well in Kenya?
Is that sport better than spectating?
If it isn't better than spectating then which sport should I play to get the highest overall statisfaction ?
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My solution: plz add comments for how you'd tackle this problem
Probability to go to Kenay=(tryout%)(tournament win percent)
B: (1)(.05) =0.05
S: (.95)(.35)=0.343
T: (.98)(.70)=0.686
Best Chance to do well in Kenya = probability of playing in kenya * winning in kenya
B: 0.05*0.95=0.0475
S: 0.343*0.30=0.103
T:0.686*0.05=0.0343
No sport is better than spectating: spectating > Playing
Overall Satisfaction= satisfaction*making try outs+ satisfaction*winning Vancity + satisfaction*winning Kenya
B: (1)(1) +(0.05)(1)(1) + (1)(0.95)(0.05)(1) = 1.0975
S: (.8)(.95) +(.8)(.95)(.35)(.8) +(.8)(.8)(.8)(.95)(.35)(.1)= 0.989824
T: (.6)(.98) +(.6)(.98)(.6)(.7) + (.6)(.98)(.6)(.7)(.6)(.05) = 0.84237
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